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April 17, 2024 12:34 PM UTC
Global markets are being driven by a scale back in Fed easing expectations and we see a 5-10% U.S. equity market correction being underway. However, with the market now only discounting one 25bps Fed cut in 2024, any downside surprises on U.S. growth or better controlled monthly inflation numbers
April 16, 2024 8:33 AM UTC
Q1 GDP upside surprise was driven mainly by public sector investment. With the government still to implement the Yuan 1trn of special sovereign bonds for infrastructure spending, public investment will likely remain a key driving force. However, the breakdown of the March data show that retail s
April 29, 2024 6:08 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% increase in April’s PPI, with gains of 0.2% in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. The core rates would match March’s outcome which slowed from above trend gains in January and February.
April 29, 2024 5:22 PM UTC
INEGI will release Mexico's Preliminary GDP data, indicating 0% growth in Q1, likely due to stagnation in key sectors like manufacturing and construction. The service sector, hit hard by the pandemic, also shows signs of sluggishness. While recovery is expected, sustained poor growth raises concerns
April 29, 2024 2:02 PM UTC
The UK has faced a series of cost-of-living shocks in the last few years. Some such as the surge in food prices may even be reversing, while it now looks likely the BoE hiking cycle may also start to reverse, although rising market rates may mean little further fall in effective mortgage rates in
April 29, 2024 1:25 PM UTC
Indonesia’s consumer price inflation in expected to continue to trend upward in April. Food prices, alongside higher transportation price growth will drive up inflation. Furthermore, increased demand during Ramadan will also weigh on headline inflation.
April 29, 2024 1:00 PM UTC
We feel that a devaluation of the Yuan is unlikely in 2024, both to avoid potentially politically destabilizing capital outflows but also to avoid upsetting the next U.S. president. Policy is geared more towards controlled depreciation to help competiveness but reduce other risks. The Yuan has a
April 29, 2024 12:42 PM UTC
Minutes of the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s monetary policy committee meeting revealed a nuanced outlook blending optimism regarding India's growth trajectory with apprehensions surrounding inflationary risks. While upbeat macroeconomic indicators paint a favourable picture, the committee re
April 29, 2024 12:38 PM UTC
As we have repeatedly underlined, base effects continue to distort the German HICP/CPI readings, but the March data came in a notch below expectations for a third successive month. Indeed, it fell from 2.7% to a 33-month low of 2.3% in the March HICP data, dominated by a clear fall in food inflati
April 29, 2024 12:20 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to increase by 0.3% in February, slightly below a 0.4% estimate that was made with January’s report, where a strong 0.6% monthly increase was seen, flattered by the end of public sector strikes. We expect preliminary indications for March to be near flat.
April 29, 2024 12:12 PM UTC
We look for the Q1 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.9%, matching the Q4 increase that was the slowest since Q1 2021. Yr/yr growth will continue to slow, to 3.9% from 4.2%, reaching its slowest since Q3 2021, but will remain well above the pre-pandemic trend.
April 29, 2024 11:26 AM UTC
In a pre-emptive move to both curb inflationary pressures and safeguard the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) against furhter depreciation, Bank Indonesia, in a surprise move, increased its main policy rate by 25 bps to 6.25%. However, further rate hikes are not expected as the central bank remains wary of hur